Early September observations from London show only about 11–12 mm of rainfall through the first six days, with light amounts on most dates and minimal accumulation under mostly dry or showery conditions. Met Office guidance indicates a warm, often bright pattern with isolated showers and occasional rain spreading from the west mid-week, but limited intensity through at least mid-month. This dry start and subdued frontal activity support the leading market-implied odds on totals below 30 mm, while uncertainty in longer-range model runs on jet-stream position and moisture transport keeps 60–70 mm (near the 69 mm climatological average) competitive. Resolution hinges on whether persistent high pressure or incoming Atlantic systems dominate the final three weeks.