Early September rainfall totaling around 0.7 inches at Central Park, including disruptions at the U.S. Open, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 2–5 inch range amid a historical monthly average of 4.31 inches. NOAA’s seasonal outlook supports above-normal Northeast precipitation, yet short-term National Weather Service forecasts indicate mostly dry, sunny conditions through mid-month with only isolated showers possible later, limiting near-term accumulation. This creates tight implied probabilities between 2–3 inches (29%) and 4–5 inches (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether late-September fronts or tropical moisture will push totals higher or allow the month to finish near or below average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in September?
Precipitation in NYC in September?
2-3" 30%
4-5" 23%
3-4" 22%
>6" 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<2"
5%
2-3"
30%
3-4"
22%
4-5"
23%
5-6"
15%
>6"
16%
2-3" 30%
4-5" 23%
3-4" 22%
>6" 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<2"
$610 Vol.
5%
2-3"
$266 Vol.
30%
3-4"
$125 Vol.
22%
4-5"
$253 Vol.
23%
5-6"
$112 Vol.
15%
>6"
$601 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early September rainfall totaling around 0.7 inches at Central Park, including disruptions at the U.S. Open, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 2–5 inch range amid a historical monthly average of 4.31 inches. NOAA’s seasonal outlook supports above-normal Northeast precipitation, yet short-term National Weather Service forecasts indicate mostly dry, sunny conditions through mid-month with only isolated showers possible later, limiting near-term accumulation. This creates tight implied probabilities between 2–3 inches (29%) and 4–5 inches (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether late-September fronts or tropical moisture will push totals higher or allow the month to finish near or below average.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ET
Volume
$1,967End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early September rainfall totaling around 0.7 inches at Central Park, including disruptions at the U.S. Open, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 2–5 inch range amid a historical monthly average of 4.31 inches. NOAA’s seasonal outlook supports above-normal Northeast precipitation, yet short-term National Weather Service forecasts indicate mostly dry, sunny conditions through mid-month with only isolated showers possible later, limiting near-term accumulation. This creates tight implied probabilities between 2–3 inches (29%) and 4–5 inches (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether late-September fronts or tropical moisture will push totals higher or allow the month to finish near or below average.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,967End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early September rainfall totaling around 0.7 inches at Central Park, including disruptions at the U.S. Open, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 2–5 inch range amid a historical monthly average of 4.31 inches. NOAA’s seasonal outlook supports above-normal Northeast precipitation, yet short-term National Weather Service forecasts indicate mostly dry, sunny conditions through mid-month with only isolated showers possible later, limiting near-term accumulation. This creates tight implied probabilities between 2–3 inches (29%) and 4–5 inches (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether late-September fronts or tropical moisture will push totals higher or allow the month to finish near or below average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions