**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 80% implied probability because these events remain statistically infrequent on annual timescales.** Globally, confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions occur at rates consistent with zero or one per year in most periods, based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and long-term catalogs showing return intervals of years to decades for individual systems. Through early September 2026, ongoing activity at Semeru and Manam (both previously assigned VEI 4) continues alongside lower-level unrest elsewhere, while the early-September Anak Krakatau eruption produced a 15 km ash plume that may qualify depending on final volume and plume-height assessments from Darwin VAAC and satellite data. No new model consensus or seismic escalation has yet shifted the market-implied odds, though additional Indonesian Ring of Fire pulses or revised VEI ratings could alter probabilities before year-end. Monitoring agencies including USGS and PVMBG continue routine updates that traders watch for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 80%
1 18%
2 2.3%
3 1.2%
$1,160,119 Vol.
$1,160,119 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 80%
1 18%
2 2.3%
3 1.2%
$1,160,119 Vol.
$1,160,119 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,626 Vol.
80%
1
$274,523 Vol.
18%
2
$42,602 Vol.
2%
3
$31,995 Vol.
1%
4
$35,516 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,857 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 80% implied probability because these events remain statistically infrequent on annual timescales.** Globally, confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions occur at rates consistent with zero or one per year in most periods, based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and long-term catalogs showing return intervals of years to decades for individual systems.
Through early September 2026, ongoing activity at Semeru and Manam (both previously assigned VEI 4) continues alongside lower-level unrest elsewhere, while the early-September Anak Krakatau eruption produced a 15 km ash plume that may qualify depending on final volume and plume-height assessments from Darwin VAAC and satellite data. No new model consensus or seismic escalation has yet shifted the market-implied odds, though additional Indonesian Ring of Fire pulses or revised VEI ratings could alter probabilities before year-end. Monitoring agencies including USGS and PVMBG continue routine updates that traders watch for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,160,119End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 80% implied probability because these events remain statistically infrequent on annual timescales.** Globally, confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions occur at rates consistent with zero or one per year in most periods, based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and long-term catalogs showing return intervals of years to decades for individual systems.
Through early September 2026, ongoing activity at Semeru and Manam (both previously assigned VEI 4) continues alongside lower-level unrest elsewhere, while the early-September Anak Krakatau eruption produced a 15 km ash plume that may qualify depending on final volume and plume-height assessments from Darwin VAAC and satellite data. No new model consensus or seismic escalation has yet shifted the market-implied odds, though additional Indonesian Ring of Fire pulses or revised VEI ratings could alter probabilities before year-end. Monitoring agencies including USGS and PVMBG continue routine updates that traders watch for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,160,119End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 80% implied probability because these events remain statistically infrequent on annual timescales.** Globally, confirmed VEI 4+ eruptions occur at rates consistent with zero or one per year in most periods, based on Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and long-term catalogs showing return intervals of years to decades for individual systems. Through early September 2026, ongoing activity at Semeru and Manam (both previously assigned VEI 4) continues alongside lower-level unrest elsewhere, while the early-September Anak Krakatau eruption produced a 15 km ash plume that may qualify depending on final volume and plume-height assessments from Darwin VAAC and satellite data. No new model consensus or seismic escalation has yet shifted the market-implied odds, though additional Indonesian Ring of Fire pulses or revised VEI ratings could alter probabilities before year-end. Monitoring agencies including USGS and PVMBG continue routine updates that traders watch for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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