Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity, including Strombolian explosions, lava flows, and ash emissions from June through early September 2026, has kept the market near even because official VEI assignments depend on precise ejecta volume and plume height thresholds that current INGV monitoring data have not yet clearly exceeded for a VEI 2 event. Recent phases produced modest ash columns and effusive output but lacked the sustained explosive intensity or total erupted mass typical of confirmed VEI 2 episodes in Etna's record, where roughly half of post-1955 events reached that level. Key uncertainties include evolving volcanic tremor amplitudes, exact pyroclastic volumes from ongoing Voragine and Northeast Crater vents, and whether new fissures will generate larger plumes before December. Upcoming INGV weekly bulletins, satellite thermal and ash observations, and any escalation in infrasound or deformation could quickly shift consensus if they document a moderate explosive phase meeting the ≥10^6 m³ criterion.