Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services converge on a daytime high of 35–36°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and dry continental air that favors strong solar heating. This positions 36°C and 37°C as the leading market outcomes at 28% and 60% implied probability, respectively, consistent with the climatological late-summer baseline and the absence of stronger high-pressure ridging that could push readings toward the 38°C historical record. Model consensus remains stable with minimal spread, limiting upside risk to 38°C while keeping lower outcomes improbable absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs overnight are expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
37°C 61%
36°C 28%
38°C 12%
35°C 4%
NEW
$21,256 Vol.
NEW
$21,256 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
4%
36°C
28%
37°C
61%
38°C
12%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 61%
36°C 28%
38°C 12%
35°C 4%
NEW
$21,256 Vol.
NEW
$21,256 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
$495 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,065 Vol.
4%
36°C
$3,700 Vol.
28%
37°C
$5,435 Vol.
61%
38°C
$4,843 Vol.
12%
39°C
$1,527 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$199 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$189 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services converge on a daytime high of 35–36°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and dry continental air that favors strong solar heating. This positions 36°C and 37°C as the leading market outcomes at 28% and 60% implied probability, respectively, consistent with the climatological late-summer baseline and the absence of stronger high-pressure ridging that could push readings toward the 38°C historical record. Model consensus remains stable with minimal spread, limiting upside risk to 38°C while keeping lower outcomes improbable absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs overnight are expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$21,256End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services converge on a daytime high of 35–36°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and dry continental air that favors strong solar heating. This positions 36°C and 37°C as the leading market outcomes at 28% and 60% implied probability, respectively, consistent with the climatological late-summer baseline and the absence of stronger high-pressure ridging that could push readings toward the 38°C historical record. Model consensus remains stable with minimal spread, limiting upside risk to 38°C while keeping lower outcomes improbable absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs overnight are expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,256End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services converge on a daytime high of 35–36°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and dry continental air that favors strong solar heating. This positions 36°C and 37°C as the leading market outcomes at 28% and 60% implied probability, respectively, consistent with the climatological late-summer baseline and the absence of stronger high-pressure ridging that could push readings toward the 38°C historical record. Model consensus remains stable with minimal spread, limiting upside risk to 38°C while keeping lower outcomes improbable absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs overnight are expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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