**Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and GFS/ECMWF runs project Madrid's minimum temperature on September 6, 2026, in the 23–25°C range overnight into early morning, reflecting warm late-summer conditions with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** Recent observations show overnight lows near 20–21°C earlier in the month, but a warm air mass has kept values elevated, consistent with above-average September baselines (historical average low ~17°C). Model consensus supports the market's concentration around 21–23°C outcomes, with the 45.5% implied probability on 21°C or below capturing residual uncertainty from local urban effects, variable cloud cover, or minor forecast adjustments before final resolution. Higher-temperature bins receive low weight as current data favor staying below 24°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
22°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
23°C 30%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
47%
22°C
29%
23°C
30%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 50%
21°C or below 47%
23°C 30%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$2 Vol.
29%
23°C
$0 Vol.
30%
24°C
$2 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and GFS/ECMWF runs project Madrid's minimum temperature on September 6, 2026, in the 23–25°C range overnight into early morning, reflecting warm late-summer conditions with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds.**
Recent observations show overnight lows near 20–21°C earlier in the month, but a warm air mass has kept values elevated, consistent with above-average September baselines (historical average low ~17°C). Model consensus supports the market's concentration around 21–23°C outcomes, with the 45.5% implied probability on 21°C or below capturing residual uncertainty from local urban effects, variable cloud cover, or minor forecast adjustments before final resolution. Higher-temperature bins receive low weight as current data favor staying below 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$229End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and GFS/ECMWF runs project Madrid's minimum temperature on September 6, 2026, in the 23–25°C range overnight into early morning, reflecting warm late-summer conditions with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds.**
Recent observations show overnight lows near 20–21°C earlier in the month, but a warm air mass has kept values elevated, consistent with above-average September baselines (historical average low ~17°C). Model consensus supports the market's concentration around 21–23°C outcomes, with the 45.5% implied probability on 21°C or below capturing residual uncertainty from local urban effects, variable cloud cover, or minor forecast adjustments before final resolution. Higher-temperature bins receive low weight as current data favor staying below 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$229End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and GFS/ECMWF runs project Madrid's minimum temperature on September 6, 2026, in the 23–25°C range overnight into early morning, reflecting warm late-summer conditions with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** Recent observations show overnight lows near 20–21°C earlier in the month, but a warm air mass has kept values elevated, consistent with above-average September baselines (historical average low ~17°C). Model consensus supports the market's concentration around 21–23°C outcomes, with the 45.5% implied probability on 21°C or below capturing residual uncertainty from local urban effects, variable cloud cover, or minor forecast adjustments before final resolution. Higher-temperature bins receive low weight as current data favor staying below 24°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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