Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light winds overnight into September 7, supporting substantial radiative cooling under high pressure and positioning the minimum temperature near 20–22°C. Madrid’s inland continental climate typically produces a large diurnal range in early September, with historical averages around 17°C but current warm daytime highs near 35–36°C and stable atmospheric conditions limiting further cooling. This setup underpins the 62% market-implied probability for 20°C or below, while the clustered probabilities around 21–24°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact overnight minimums from ensemble guidance. No significant frontal systems or moisture are expected to moderate the drop, keeping trader focus on the next model updates for confirmation ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
20°C or below 72%
24°C 15%
23°C 14%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
69%
21°C
12%
22°C
10%
23°C
14%
24°C
15%
25°C
14%
26°C
14%
27°C
14%
28°C
6%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
20°C or below 72%
24°C 15%
23°C 14%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
$25 Vol.
69%
21°C
$47 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
10%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$0 Vol.
15%
25°C
$0 Vol.
14%
26°C
$0 Vol.
14%
27°C
$0 Vol.
14%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light winds overnight into September 7, supporting substantial radiative cooling under high pressure and positioning the minimum temperature near 20–22°C. Madrid’s inland continental climate typically produces a large diurnal range in early September, with historical averages around 17°C but current warm daytime highs near 35–36°C and stable atmospheric conditions limiting further cooling. This setup underpins the 62% market-implied probability for 20°C or below, while the clustered probabilities around 21–24°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact overnight minimums from ensemble guidance. No significant frontal systems or moisture are expected to moderate the drop, keeping trader focus on the next model updates for confirmation ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light winds overnight into September 7, supporting substantial radiative cooling under high pressure and positioning the minimum temperature near 20–22°C. Madrid’s inland continental climate typically produces a large diurnal range in early September, with historical averages around 17°C but current warm daytime highs near 35–36°C and stable atmospheric conditions limiting further cooling. This setup underpins the 62% market-implied probability for 20°C or below, while the clustered probabilities around 21–24°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact overnight minimums from ensemble guidance. No significant frontal systems or moisture are expected to moderate the drop, keeping trader focus on the next model updates for confirmation ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light winds overnight into September 7, supporting substantial radiative cooling under high pressure and positioning the minimum temperature near 20–22°C. Madrid’s inland continental climate typically produces a large diurnal range in early September, with historical averages around 17°C but current warm daytime highs near 35–36°C and stable atmospheric conditions limiting further cooling. This setup underpins the 62% market-implied probability for 20°C or below, while the clustered probabilities around 21–24°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact overnight minimums from ensemble guidance. No significant frontal systems or moisture are expected to moderate the drop, keeping trader focus on the next model updates for confirmation ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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