Trader consensus heavily favors 87-88°F as the event peak because official and local forecasts for Black Rock Desert showed daytime highs mostly in the low-to-mid 80s throughout late August and early September 2026, well below the historical 95–104°F climatology. Persistent moisture, cloud cover, and gusty winds associated with an unusual late-summer pattern suppressed maximum temperatures, with the warmest readings near 88°F early in the week before cooler, rainy conditions dominated. This outcome remains robust unless verified station data later confirm an isolated spike above 89°F on an unmonitored afternoon, though current observations and model consensus make that outcome unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
87-88°F 91%
89-90°F 2.8%
95-96°F 2.0%
97°F or above 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
1%
87-88°F
91%
89-90°F
3%
91-92°F
<1%
93-94°F
<1%
95-96°F
2%
97°F or above
2%
87-88°F 91%
89-90°F 2.8%
95-96°F 2.0%
97°F or above 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
$626 Vol.
1%
87-88°F
$2,006 Vol.
91%
89-90°F
$633 Vol.
3%
91-92°F
$341 Vol.
<1%
93-94°F
$408 Vol.
<1%
95-96°F
$479 Vol.
2%
97°F or above
$390 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Trader consensus heavily favors 87-88°F as the event peak because official and local forecasts for Black Rock Desert showed daytime highs mostly in the low-to-mid 80s throughout late August and early September 2026, well below the historical 95–104°F climatology. Persistent moisture, cloud cover, and gusty winds associated with an unusual late-summer pattern suppressed maximum temperatures, with the warmest readings near 88°F early in the week before cooler, rainy conditions dominated. This outcome remains robust unless verified station data later confirm an isolated spike above 89°F on an unmonitored afternoon, though current observations and model consensus make that outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,883End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Trader consensus heavily favors 87-88°F as the event peak because official and local forecasts for Black Rock Desert showed daytime highs mostly in the low-to-mid 80s throughout late August and early September 2026, well below the historical 95–104°F climatology. Persistent moisture, cloud cover, and gusty winds associated with an unusual late-summer pattern suppressed maximum temperatures, with the warmest readings near 88°F early in the week before cooler, rainy conditions dominated. This outcome remains robust unless verified station data later confirm an isolated spike above 89°F on an unmonitored afternoon, though current observations and model consensus make that outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Volume
$4,883End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 87-88°F as the event peak because official and local forecasts for Black Rock Desert showed daytime highs mostly in the low-to-mid 80s throughout late August and early September 2026, well below the historical 95–104°F climatology. Persistent moisture, cloud cover, and gusty winds associated with an unusual late-summer pattern suppressed maximum temperatures, with the warmest readings near 88°F early in the week before cooler, rainy conditions dominated. This outcome remains robust unless verified station data later confirm an isolated spike above 89°F on an unmonitored afternoon, though current observations and model consensus make that outcome unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions