Traders assign a 96% probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 due to comprehensive near-Earth object surveys showing no asteroids or comets on collision courses for the remainder of the year. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies tracks known objects with no predicted impacts at that energy scale, equivalent to an object roughly 10–20 meters across. Such events remain rare on annual timescales, occurring perhaps once every few decades based on historical frequency and atmospheric entry data. While small, undiscovered bodies could theoretically evade detection until late, current observational completeness and absence of alerts from monitoring networks underpin the market’s high confidence. Refined data from ongoing surveys may arrive before December but are unlikely to shift the outlook materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 96% probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 due to comprehensive near-Earth object surveys showing no asteroids or comets on collision courses for the remainder of the year. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies tracks known objects with no predicted impacts at that energy scale, equivalent to an object roughly 10–20 meters across. Such events remain rare on annual timescales, occurring perhaps once every few decades based on historical frequency and atmospheric entry data. While small, undiscovered bodies could theoretically evade detection until late, current observational completeness and absence of alerts from monitoring networks underpin the market’s high confidence. Refined data from ongoing surveys may arrive before December but are unlikely to shift the outlook materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 96% probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 due to comprehensive near-Earth object surveys showing no asteroids or comets on collision courses for the remainder of the year. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies tracks known objects with no predicted impacts at that energy scale, equivalent to an object roughly 10–20 meters across. Such events remain rare on annual timescales, occurring perhaps once every few decades based on historical frequency and atmospheric entry data. While small, undiscovered bodies could theoretically evade detection until late, current observational completeness and absence of alerts from monitoring networks underpin the market’s high confidence. Refined data from ongoing surveys may arrive before December but are unlikely to shift the outlook materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96% probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 due to comprehensive near-Earth object surveys showing no asteroids or comets on collision courses for the remainder of the year. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies tracks known objects with no predicted impacts at that energy scale, equivalent to an object roughly 10–20 meters across. Such events remain rare on annual timescales, occurring perhaps once every few decades based on historical frequency and atmospheric entry data. While small, undiscovered bodies could theoretically evade detection until late, current observational completeness and absence of alerts from monitoring networks underpin the market’s high confidence. Refined data from ongoing surveys may arrive before December but are unlikely to shift the outlook materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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