SpaceX's June 2026 Nasdaq IPO, the largest on record at roughly $1.77 trillion valuation, triggered no S&P 500 inclusion because S&P Dow Jones Indices upheld its existing GAAP profitability and 12-month seasoning requirements after public consultation. The company reported net losses in 2025 and operating losses into 2026, leaving it ineligible under current rules that demand positive earnings in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters. This underpins the 99.8% market-implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus that index committee standards will hold through year-end. Tail risks include an unanticipated mid-year methodology shift or accelerated profitability, though both remain remote given the committee's June reaffirmation and ongoing capital-intensive operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$26,341 Vol.
$26,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$26,341 Vol.
$26,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 Nasdaq IPO, the largest on record at roughly $1.77 trillion valuation, triggered no S&P 500 inclusion because S&P Dow Jones Indices upheld its existing GAAP profitability and 12-month seasoning requirements after public consultation. The company reported net losses in 2025 and operating losses into 2026, leaving it ineligible under current rules that demand positive earnings in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters. This underpins the 99.8% market-implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus that index committee standards will hold through year-end. Tail risks include an unanticipated mid-year methodology shift or accelerated profitability, though both remain remote given the committee's June reaffirmation and ongoing capital-intensive operations.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$26,341End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 Nasdaq IPO, the largest on record at roughly $1.77 trillion valuation, triggered no S&P 500 inclusion because S&P Dow Jones Indices upheld its existing GAAP profitability and 12-month seasoning requirements after public consultation. The company reported net losses in 2025 and operating losses into 2026, leaving it ineligible under current rules that demand positive earnings in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters. This underpins the 99.8% market-implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus that index committee standards will hold through year-end. Tail risks include an unanticipated mid-year methodology shift or accelerated profitability, though both remain remote given the committee's June reaffirmation and ongoing capital-intensive operations.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$26,341End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's June 2026 Nasdaq IPO, the largest on record at roughly $1.77 trillion valuation, triggered no S&P 500 inclusion because S&P Dow Jones Indices upheld its existing GAAP profitability and 12-month seasoning requirements after public consultation. The company reported net losses in 2025 and operating losses into 2026, leaving it ineligible under current rules that demand positive earnings in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters. This underpins the 99.8% market-implied probability of "No," reflecting trader consensus that index committee standards will hold through year-end. Tail risks include an unanticipated mid-year methodology shift or accelerated profitability, though both remain remote given the committee's June reaffirmation and ongoing capital-intensive operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions