Advanced planetary defense monitoring by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys has cataloged tens of thousands of near-Earth asteroids with no objects on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% "No" consensus. Infrared and optical systems, including ongoing Catalina and ATLAS efforts plus the developing NEO Surveyor mission at Sun-Earth L1, continue to refine orbits and rule out risks at this scale, consistent with historical frequencies of roughly one megaton-class event per several centuries. Traders price in the low base rate plus detection completeness for objects above ~50 meters. Residual uncertainty could arise from an undetected long-period comet or faint asteroid evading current surveys until late in the year, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given expanding coverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% chance
$116,911 Vol.
$116,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$116,911 Vol.
$116,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced planetary defense monitoring by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys has cataloged tens of thousands of near-Earth asteroids with no objects on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% "No" consensus. Infrared and optical systems, including ongoing Catalina and ATLAS efforts plus the developing NEO Surveyor mission at Sun-Earth L1, continue to refine orbits and rule out risks at this scale, consistent with historical frequencies of roughly one megaton-class event per several centuries. Traders price in the low base rate plus detection completeness for objects above ~50 meters. Residual uncertainty could arise from an undetected long-period comet or faint asteroid evading current surveys until late in the year, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given expanding coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced planetary defense monitoring by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys has cataloged tens of thousands of near-Earth asteroids with no objects on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% "No" consensus. Infrared and optical systems, including ongoing Catalina and ATLAS efforts plus the developing NEO Surveyor mission at Sun-Earth L1, continue to refine orbits and rule out risks at this scale, consistent with historical frequencies of roughly one megaton-class event per several centuries. Traders price in the low base rate plus detection completeness for objects above ~50 meters. Residual uncertainty could arise from an undetected long-period comet or faint asteroid evading current surveys until late in the year, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given expanding coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Advanced planetary defense monitoring by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys has cataloged tens of thousands of near-Earth asteroids with no objects on trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the 98.3% "No" consensus. Infrared and optical systems, including ongoing Catalina and ATLAS efforts plus the developing NEO Surveyor mission at Sun-Earth L1, continue to refine orbits and rule out risks at this scale, consistent with historical frequencies of roughly one megaton-class event per several centuries. Traders price in the low base rate plus detection completeness for objects above ~50 meters. Residual uncertainty could arise from an undetected long-period comet or faint asteroid evading current surveys until late in the year, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given expanding coverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions