**Strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the clock's reliance on annual or less frequent updates to carbon budget estimates and global emissions trends.** The underlying calculations, drawn from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute and IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, project a deadline around mid-2029 based on current emission rates of roughly 40+ GtCO₂ per year. Recent UNEP assessments confirm the remaining budget for limiting overshoot is now small (around 130 Gt for a 50% chance), yet these do not alter the clock's displayed date without a full methodological revision or major emissions shift. Historical clock adjustments have occurred yearly at most, with the last notable changes tied to 2021–2023 data releases rather than interim reports. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new carbon budget assessment or sharp, sustained emissions decline before year-end, though current policy trajectories and measurement timelines make such immediate revisions unlikely. Market-implied odds reflect traders' assessment that the clock's next update cycle will not produce a visible shift within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% chance
$13,261 Vol.
$13,261 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$13,261 Vol.
$13,261 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the clock's reliance on annual or less frequent updates to carbon budget estimates and global emissions trends.**
The underlying calculations, drawn from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute and IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, project a deadline around mid-2029 based on current emission rates of roughly 40+ GtCO₂ per year. Recent UNEP assessments confirm the remaining budget for limiting overshoot is now small (around 130 Gt for a 50% chance), yet these do not alter the clock's displayed date without a full methodological revision or major emissions shift. Historical clock adjustments have occurred yearly at most, with the last notable changes tied to 2021–2023 data releases rather than interim reports.
Realistic challenges include an unexpected new carbon budget assessment or sharp, sustained emissions decline before year-end, though current policy trajectories and measurement timelines make such immediate revisions unlikely. Market-implied odds reflect traders' assessment that the clock's next update cycle will not produce a visible shift within the narrow remaining window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$13,261End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the clock's reliance on annual or less frequent updates to carbon budget estimates and global emissions trends.**
The underlying calculations, drawn from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute and IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, project a deadline around mid-2029 based on current emission rates of roughly 40+ GtCO₂ per year. Recent UNEP assessments confirm the remaining budget for limiting overshoot is now small (around 130 Gt for a 50% chance), yet these do not alter the clock's displayed date without a full methodological revision or major emissions shift. Historical clock adjustments have occurred yearly at most, with the last notable changes tied to 2021–2023 data releases rather than interim reports.
Realistic challenges include an unexpected new carbon budget assessment or sharp, sustained emissions decline before year-end, though current policy trajectories and measurement timelines make such immediate revisions unlikely. Market-implied odds reflect traders' assessment that the clock's next update cycle will not produce a visible shift within the narrow remaining window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$13,261End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the clock's reliance on annual or less frequent updates to carbon budget estimates and global emissions trends.** The underlying calculations, drawn from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute and IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, project a deadline around mid-2029 based on current emission rates of roughly 40+ GtCO₂ per year. Recent UNEP assessments confirm the remaining budget for limiting overshoot is now small (around 130 Gt for a 50% chance), yet these do not alter the clock's displayed date without a full methodological revision or major emissions shift. Historical clock adjustments have occurred yearly at most, with the last notable changes tied to 2021–2023 data releases rather than interim reports. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new carbon budget assessment or sharp, sustained emissions decline before year-end, though current policy trajectories and measurement timelines make such immediate revisions unlikely. Market-implied odds reflect traders' assessment that the clock's next update cycle will not produce a visible shift within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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