Trader consensus around 6–8 magnitude 5.5+ events for the September 7–13 window reflects the USGS-derived global baseline of roughly 10–15 such quakes per week, derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relation where M5.0–5.9 events occur about 1,300 times annually. Recent monitoring shows near-average rates, with 25–30 M5+ detections in the prior three days and no major swarm or aftershock sequence elevating the near-term count. Seismic variability arises from Poisson statistics plus occasional clustering along subduction zones, allowing the distribution to spread across single-digit outcomes while making extremes below 6 or above 13 less probable absent a sudden large event or quiet period. USGS and international catalogs confirm no anomalous foreshock activity or tectonic triggering signals in key regions as the week begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
≤6 23%
7 13%
8 13%
more than 13 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
23%
7
13%
8
13%
9
11%
10
10%
11
11%
12
8%
13
8%
more than 13
13%
≤6 23%
7 13%
8 13%
more than 13 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
$1,128 Vol.
23%
7
$0 Vol.
13%
8
$0 Vol.
13%
9
$0 Vol.
11%
10
$0 Vol.
10%
11
$0 Vol.
11%
12
$0 Vol.
8%
13
$0 Vol.
8%
more than 13
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus around 6–8 magnitude 5.5+ events for the September 7–13 window reflects the USGS-derived global baseline of roughly 10–15 such quakes per week, derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relation where M5.0–5.9 events occur about 1,300 times annually. Recent monitoring shows near-average rates, with 25–30 M5+ detections in the prior three days and no major swarm or aftershock sequence elevating the near-term count. Seismic variability arises from Poisson statistics plus occasional clustering along subduction zones, allowing the distribution to spread across single-digit outcomes while making extremes below 6 or above 13 less probable absent a sudden large event or quiet period. USGS and international catalogs confirm no anomalous foreshock activity or tectonic triggering signals in key regions as the week begins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,128End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus around 6–8 magnitude 5.5+ events for the September 7–13 window reflects the USGS-derived global baseline of roughly 10–15 such quakes per week, derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relation where M5.0–5.9 events occur about 1,300 times annually. Recent monitoring shows near-average rates, with 25–30 M5+ detections in the prior three days and no major swarm or aftershock sequence elevating the near-term count. Seismic variability arises from Poisson statistics plus occasional clustering along subduction zones, allowing the distribution to spread across single-digit outcomes while making extremes below 6 or above 13 less probable absent a sudden large event or quiet period. USGS and international catalogs confirm no anomalous foreshock activity or tectonic triggering signals in key regions as the week begins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$1,128End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 6–8 magnitude 5.5+ events for the September 7–13 window reflects the USGS-derived global baseline of roughly 10–15 such quakes per week, derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relation where M5.0–5.9 events occur about 1,300 times annually. Recent monitoring shows near-average rates, with 25–30 M5+ detections in the prior three days and no major swarm or aftershock sequence elevating the near-term count. Seismic variability arises from Poisson statistics plus occasional clustering along subduction zones, allowing the distribution to spread across single-digit outcomes while making extremes below 6 or above 13 less probable absent a sudden large event or quiet period. USGS and international catalogs confirm no anomalous foreshock activity or tectonic triggering signals in key regions as the week begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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