Recent USGS data show global seismic activity remaining typical, with the strongest events in early September reaching only magnitude 6.3 and no magnitude 7.0+ quakes recorded since mid-August. Historically, the world averages roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event and about a dozen in the 7.0–7.9 range annually, driven by subduction zones and strike-slip faults monitored continuously by the USGS. With just 25 days left until September 30, the absence of recent large ruptures and the inherent unpredictability of precise timing or magnitude keep trader focus on ongoing tectonic strain accumulation and any new model updates or aftershock sequences that could signal escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
6.5+
99%
7.0+
62%
7.5+
32%
8.0+
12%
8.5+
4%
9.0+
1%
$9,384 Vol.
6.5+
$2,138 Vol.
99%
7.0+
$2,219 Vol.
62%
7.5+
$1,648 Vol.
32%
8.0+
$2,806 Vol.
12%
8.5+
$357 Vol.
4%
9.0+
$216 Vol.
1%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show global seismic activity remaining typical, with the strongest events in early September reaching only magnitude 6.3 and no magnitude 7.0+ quakes recorded since mid-August. Historically, the world averages roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event and about a dozen in the 7.0–7.9 range annually, driven by subduction zones and strike-slip faults monitored continuously by the USGS. With just 25 days left until September 30, the absence of recent large ruptures and the inherent unpredictability of precise timing or magnitude keep trader focus on ongoing tectonic strain accumulation and any new model updates or aftershock sequences that could signal escalation.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,384End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show global seismic activity remaining typical, with the strongest events in early September reaching only magnitude 6.3 and no magnitude 7.0+ quakes recorded since mid-August. Historically, the world averages roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event and about a dozen in the 7.0–7.9 range annually, driven by subduction zones and strike-slip faults monitored continuously by the USGS. With just 25 days left until September 30, the absence of recent large ruptures and the inherent unpredictability of precise timing or magnitude keep trader focus on ongoing tectonic strain accumulation and any new model updates or aftershock sequences that could signal escalation.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$9,384End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS data show global seismic activity remaining typical, with the strongest events in early September reaching only magnitude 6.3 and no magnitude 7.0+ quakes recorded since mid-August. Historically, the world averages roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event and about a dozen in the 7.0–7.9 range annually, driven by subduction zones and strike-slip faults monitored continuously by the USGS. With just 25 days left until September 30, the absence of recent large ruptures and the inherent unpredictability of precise timing or magnitude keep trader focus on ongoing tectonic strain accumulation and any new model updates or aftershock sequences that could signal escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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