Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3 56%

0 31%

4-6 14%

7+ 3.5%

Polymarket

$11,442 Vol.

1-3 56%

0 31%

4-6 14%

7+ 3.5%

Polymarket

$11,442 Vol.

0

$4,876 Vol.

31%

1-3

$2,204 Vol.

56%

4-6

$3,073 Vol.

14%

7+

$1,290 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying toward super El Niño strength, have produced record-high vertical wind shear, dry stable air, and suppressed convection across the tropical Atlantic, resulting in only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through September 5—the lowest accumulated cyclone energy since 1941. NOAA’s August outlook, reflecting these hostile factors, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes total, while Colorado State University and other agencies have similarly downgraded expectations. With the climatological peak still ahead but models showing persistent suppression, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to just 1–3 hurricanes for the full June–November period, followed by a substantial chance of zero.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$11,442
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying toward super El Niño strength, have produced record-high vertical wind shear, dry stable air, and suppressed convection across the tropical Atlantic, resulting in only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through September 5—the lowest accumulated cyclone energy since 1941. NOAA’s August outlook, reflecting these hostile factors, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes total, while Colorado State University and other agencies have similarly downgraded expectations. With the climatological peak still ahead but models showing persistent suppression, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to just 1–3 hurricanes for the full June–November period, followed by a substantial chance of zero.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$11,442
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?

Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?

36%
icon for Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?

Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?

28%
icon for Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

4%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1-3" at 56%, followed by "0" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" has generated $11.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is "1-3" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.