**Strong El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026, positioning one of the first three days as the clear leader for hottest on record for its calendar date.** Copernicus ERA5 data confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior 2024 mark by ~0.14°C, while ocean surface temperatures also hit new daily highs in late August. These factors, alongside regional heatwaves and elevated baseline anomalies, underpin the 98.2% market-implied probability for the top ranking. Revisions in final observational datasets or unexpected cooling influences could narrow the margin, though current official analyses show limited scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$764 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$526 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$415 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Strong El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026, positioning one of the first three days as the clear leader for hottest on record for its calendar date.** Copernicus ERA5 data confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior 2024 mark by ~0.14°C, while ocean surface temperatures also hit new daily highs in late August. These factors, alongside regional heatwaves and elevated baseline anomalies, underpin the 98.2% market-implied probability for the top ranking. Revisions in final observational datasets or unexpected cooling influences could narrow the margin, though current official analyses show limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Strong El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026, positioning one of the first three days as the clear leader for hottest on record for its calendar date.** Copernicus ERA5 data confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior 2024 mark by ~0.14°C, while ocean surface temperatures also hit new daily highs in late August. These factors, alongside regional heatwaves and elevated baseline anomalies, underpin the 98.2% market-implied probability for the top ranking. Revisions in final observational datasets or unexpected cooling influences could narrow the margin, though current official analyses show limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend drove exceptionally high global temperatures during early August 2026, positioning one of the first three days as the clear leader for hottest on record for its calendar date.** Copernicus ERA5 data confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior 2024 mark by ~0.14°C, while ocean surface temperatures also hit new daily highs in late August. These factors, alongside regional heatwaves and elevated baseline anomalies, underpin the 98.2% market-implied probability for the top ranking. Revisions in final observational datasets or unexpected cooling influences could narrow the margin, though current official analyses show limited scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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