Forecast models for Toronto’s overnight low on September 9 show notable divergence amid an approaching warm front and showers. Official guidance from Environment Canada points to a low near 16°C under increasing clouds and precipitation, while GFS-based ensembles and some private models hold closer to 19°C with limited nocturnal cooling due to humidity and southerly flow. This spread, combined with historical September 9 averages near 15°C, underpins the market’s balanced probabilities on both sub-14°C and 24°C-plus outcomes. Traders are pricing in resolution sensitivity to the exact timing of cloud cover and any model revisions before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 9?
24°C or higher 91%
14°C or below 89%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
89%
15°C
20%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
25%
19°C
31%
20°C
26%
21°C
25%
22°C
49%
23°C
21%
24°C or higher
91%
24°C or higher 91%
14°C or below 89%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
21%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Toronto’s overnight low on September 9 show notable divergence amid an approaching warm front and showers. Official guidance from Environment Canada points to a low near 16°C under increasing clouds and precipitation, while GFS-based ensembles and some private models hold closer to 19°C with limited nocturnal cooling due to humidity and southerly flow. This spread, combined with historical September 9 averages near 15°C, underpins the market’s balanced probabilities on both sub-14°C and 24°C-plus outcomes. Traders are pricing in resolution sensitivity to the exact timing of cloud cover and any model revisions before the period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Toronto’s overnight low on September 9 show notable divergence amid an approaching warm front and showers. Official guidance from Environment Canada points to a low near 16°C under increasing clouds and precipitation, while GFS-based ensembles and some private models hold closer to 19°C with limited nocturnal cooling due to humidity and southerly flow. This spread, combined with historical September 9 averages near 15°C, underpins the market’s balanced probabilities on both sub-14°C and 24°C-plus outcomes. Traders are pricing in resolution sensitivity to the exact timing of cloud cover and any model revisions before the period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Toronto’s overnight low on September 9 show notable divergence amid an approaching warm front and showers. Official guidance from Environment Canada points to a low near 16°C under increasing clouds and precipitation, while GFS-based ensembles and some private models hold closer to 19°C with limited nocturnal cooling due to humidity and southerly flow. This spread, combined with historical September 9 averages near 15°C, underpins the market’s balanced probabilities on both sub-14°C and 24°C-plus outcomes. Traders are pricing in resolution sensitivity to the exact timing of cloud cover and any model revisions before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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