Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or Habagat, continues to drive scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs near seasonal norms. Official PAGASA outlooks and numerical models from GFS and ECMWF show widespread cloud cover with highs most likely reaching 28–30°C on September 7, consistent with historical September averages of 30–32°C under similar rainy conditions. Recent observations confirm suppressed maxima around 28–29°C amid high humidity and frequent showers. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because these thresholds align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities decline sharply above 31°C due to the low likelihood of clearing skies or stronger insolation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 7?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 7?
30°C 40%
29°C 28%
31°C 16%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
10%
29°C
28%
30°C
40%
31°C
16%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 40%
29°C 28%
31°C 16%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$208 Vol.
2%
27°C
$80 Vol.
4%
28°C
$401 Vol.
10%
29°C
$644 Vol.
28%
30°C
$1,193 Vol.
40%
31°C
$403 Vol.
16%
32°C
$183 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or Habagat, continues to drive scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs near seasonal norms. Official PAGASA outlooks and numerical models from GFS and ECMWF show widespread cloud cover with highs most likely reaching 28–30°C on September 7, consistent with historical September averages of 30–32°C under similar rainy conditions. Recent observations confirm suppressed maxima around 28–29°C amid high humidity and frequent showers. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because these thresholds align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities decline sharply above 31°C due to the low likelihood of clearing skies or stronger insolation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$5,564End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or Habagat, continues to drive scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs near seasonal norms. Official PAGASA outlooks and numerical models from GFS and ECMWF show widespread cloud cover with highs most likely reaching 28–30°C on September 7, consistent with historical September averages of 30–32°C under similar rainy conditions. Recent observations confirm suppressed maxima around 28–29°C amid high humidity and frequent showers. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because these thresholds align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities decline sharply above 31°C due to the low likelihood of clearing skies or stronger insolation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,564End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or Habagat, continues to drive scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs near seasonal norms. Official PAGASA outlooks and numerical models from GFS and ECMWF show widespread cloud cover with highs most likely reaching 28–30°C on September 7, consistent with historical September averages of 30–32°C under similar rainy conditions. Recent observations confirm suppressed maxima around 28–29°C amid high humidity and frequent showers. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because these thresholds align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities decline sharply above 31°C due to the low likelihood of clearing skies or stronger insolation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions