Recent global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature for Istanbul on September 6 most likely in the 18–21°C range under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered odds around 17–20°C, where traders weigh slight model disagreements on exact low timing and urban microclimate effects against September climatological baselines near 17°C. No incoming fronts or significant moisture are expected to disrupt the pattern before official observations from stations like Istanbul Atatürk Airport finalize the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
13°C or below 44%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
44%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
26%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
13°C or below 44%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$1 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$10 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature for Istanbul on September 6 most likely in the 18–21°C range under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered odds around 17–20°C, where traders weigh slight model disagreements on exact low timing and urban microclimate effects against September climatological baselines near 17°C. No incoming fronts or significant moisture are expected to disrupt the pattern before official observations from stations like Istanbul Atatürk Airport finalize the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature for Istanbul on September 6 most likely in the 18–21°C range under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered odds around 17–20°C, where traders weigh slight model disagreements on exact low timing and urban microclimate effects against September climatological baselines near 17°C. No incoming fronts or significant moisture are expected to disrupt the pattern before official observations from stations like Istanbul Atatürk Airport finalize the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature for Istanbul on September 6 most likely in the 18–21°C range under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and typical radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered odds around 17–20°C, where traders weigh slight model disagreements on exact low timing and urban microclimate effects against September climatological baselines near 17°C. No incoming fronts or significant moisture are expected to disrupt the pattern before official observations from stations like Istanbul Atatürk Airport finalize the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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