Recent official forecasts from meteorological models indicate Istanbul will experience clear skies and light northeast winds overnight on September 5, supporting radiative cooling to a daily minimum near 20–21°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for those exact thresholds, reflecting the current stable high-pressure pattern and absence of cooler air advection. Historical early-September baselines for the city show typical overnight lows in the low 20s °C under similar conditions, with limited variability absent frontal passages. Updated model runs through the evening continue to cluster around this range, though minor revisions in dew point or wind could nudge the final recorded minimum slightly lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
21°C 99%
19°C 15%
20°C 15%
17°C or below 5%
$514 Vol.
$514 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
21°C 99%
19°C 15%
20°C 15%
17°C or below 5%
$514 Vol.
$514 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
$32 Vol.
No
18°C
$32 Vol.
No
19°C
$43 Vol.
No
20°C
$27 Vol.
No
21°C
$121 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$79 Vol.
No
23°C
$35 Vol.
No
24°C
$35 Vol.
No
25°C
$35 Vol.
No
26°C
$35 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$40 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological models indicate Istanbul will experience clear skies and light northeast winds overnight on September 5, supporting radiative cooling to a daily minimum near 20–21°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for those exact thresholds, reflecting the current stable high-pressure pattern and absence of cooler air advection. Historical early-September baselines for the city show typical overnight lows in the low 20s °C under similar conditions, with limited variability absent frontal passages. Updated model runs through the evening continue to cluster around this range, though minor revisions in dew point or wind could nudge the final recorded minimum slightly lower before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$514End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological models indicate Istanbul will experience clear skies and light northeast winds overnight on September 5, supporting radiative cooling to a daily minimum near 20–21°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for those exact thresholds, reflecting the current stable high-pressure pattern and absence of cooler air advection. Historical early-September baselines for the city show typical overnight lows in the low 20s °C under similar conditions, with limited variability absent frontal passages. Updated model runs through the evening continue to cluster around this range, though minor revisions in dew point or wind could nudge the final recorded minimum slightly lower before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$514End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent official forecasts from meteorological models indicate Istanbul will experience clear skies and light northeast winds overnight on September 5, supporting radiative cooling to a daily minimum near 20–21°C. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for those exact thresholds, reflecting the current stable high-pressure pattern and absence of cooler air advection. Historical early-September baselines for the city show typical overnight lows in the low 20s °C under similar conditions, with limited variability absent frontal passages. Updated model runs through the evening continue to cluster around this range, though minor revisions in dew point or wind could nudge the final recorded minimum slightly lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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