Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance show overnight lows in Helsinki on September 9 centered around 12–15°C under southwesterly flow, with cloud cover and scattered rain moderating radiative cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market odds across 13–15°C outcomes. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, yet current mild advection and dew points around 13–15°C reduce the chance of sharper drops. Updated FMI briefings and higher-resolution model runs expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 9?
19°C or higher 47%
14°C 34%
13°C 31%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
5%
11°C
8%
12°C
26%
13°C
31%
14°C
34%
15°C
30%
16°C
20%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
47%
19°C or higher 47%
14°C 34%
13°C 31%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
$30 Vol.
3%
10°C
$0 Vol.
5%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
31%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$72 Vol.
8%
18°C
$59 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$25 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance show overnight lows in Helsinki on September 9 centered around 12–15°C under southwesterly flow, with cloud cover and scattered rain moderating radiative cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market odds across 13–15°C outcomes. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, yet current mild advection and dew points around 13–15°C reduce the chance of sharper drops. Updated FMI briefings and higher-resolution model runs expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$177End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance show overnight lows in Helsinki on September 9 centered around 12–15°C under southwesterly flow, with cloud cover and scattered rain moderating radiative cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market odds across 13–15°C outcomes. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, yet current mild advection and dew points around 13–15°C reduce the chance of sharper drops. Updated FMI briefings and higher-resolution model runs expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$177End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and regional guidance show overnight lows in Helsinki on September 9 centered around 12–15°C under southwesterly flow, with cloud cover and scattered rain moderating radiative cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market odds across 13–15°C outcomes. Historical September averages near 10°C provide context, yet current mild advection and dew points around 13–15°C reduce the chance of sharper drops. Updated FMI briefings and higher-resolution model runs expected within 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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