**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on September 6, reflecting alignment between numerical weather prediction models and observed conditions.** Overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with light northerly winds and moderate humidity around 70-80%, has produced a steady decline toward this threshold, consistent with late-summer climatology where Shanghai’s September lows typically range 22–25°C. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows highs near 30°C transitioning to overnight minima of 23–25°C, with limited model spread supporting the market-implied outcome. A shift in cloud cover or stronger advection could lower readings by 1–2°C, while drier air or clearer conditions might push the low slightly higher before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$21,092 Vol.
$21,092 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$21,092 Vol.
$21,092 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
$111 Vol.
No
21°C
$111 Vol.
No
22°C
$162 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,222 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,439 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,189 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,118 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$347 Vol.
No
28°C
$211 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,071 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$111 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on September 6, reflecting alignment between numerical weather prediction models and observed conditions.** Overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with light northerly winds and moderate humidity around 70-80%, has produced a steady decline toward this threshold, consistent with late-summer climatology where Shanghai’s September lows typically range 22–25°C. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows highs near 30°C transitioning to overnight minima of 23–25°C, with limited model spread supporting the market-implied outcome. A shift in cloud cover or stronger advection could lower readings by 1–2°C, while drier air or clearer conditions might push the low slightly higher before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$21,092End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on September 6, reflecting alignment between numerical weather prediction models and observed conditions.** Overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with light northerly winds and moderate humidity around 70-80%, has produced a steady decline toward this threshold, consistent with late-summer climatology where Shanghai’s September lows typically range 22–25°C. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows highs near 30°C transitioning to overnight minima of 23–25°C, with limited model spread supporting the market-implied outcome. A shift in cloud cover or stronger advection could lower readings by 1–2°C, while drier air or clearer conditions might push the low slightly higher before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,092End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on September 6, reflecting alignment between numerical weather prediction models and observed conditions.** Overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with light northerly winds and moderate humidity around 70-80%, has produced a steady decline toward this threshold, consistent with late-summer climatology where Shanghai’s September lows typically range 22–25°C. Official guidance from regional forecasts shows highs near 30°C transitioning to overnight minima of 23–25°C, with limited model spread supporting the market-implied outcome. A shift in cloud cover or stronger advection could lower readings by 1–2°C, while drier air or clearer conditions might push the low slightly higher before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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