Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 8 will likely settle near 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 10–15 km/h and limited moisture. These conditions support efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs around 29–30°C, following a period of light rain and overcast weather that moderated temperatures earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for exactly 24°C and 29% for 25°C, aligns with this model agreement and historical September minimum baselines near 22–23°C. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below stem from the absence of stronger cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
24°C 49%
25°C 29%
22°C 16%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
16%
23°C
15%
24°C
49%
25°C
29%
26°C
14%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 49%
25°C 29%
22°C 16%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
18°C or below
$344 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$707 Vol.
15%
24°C
$2,554 Vol.
49%
25°C
$165 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
14%
27°C
$213 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 8 will likely settle near 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 10–15 km/h and limited moisture. These conditions support efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs around 29–30°C, following a period of light rain and overcast weather that moderated temperatures earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for exactly 24°C and 29% for 25°C, aligns with this model agreement and historical September minimum baselines near 22–23°C. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below stem from the absence of stronger cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,189End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 8 will likely settle near 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 10–15 km/h and limited moisture. These conditions support efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs around 29–30°C, following a period of light rain and overcast weather that moderated temperatures earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for exactly 24°C and 29% for 25°C, aligns with this model agreement and historical September minimum baselines near 22–23°C. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below stem from the absence of stronger cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,189End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 8 will likely settle near 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 10–15 km/h and limited moisture. These conditions support efficient radiative cooling after daytime highs around 29–30°C, following a period of light rain and overcast weather that moderated temperatures earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for exactly 24°C and 29% for 25°C, aligns with this model agreement and historical September minimum baselines near 22–23°C. Lower probabilities for 22°C or below stem from the absence of stronger cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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