Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated September 6, point to overnight lows of 22–24°C in Shanghai on September 7 under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with early-autumn climatology, where typical minimums range 22–25°C as the monsoon retreat allows drier air advection. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C (59% implied probability) because ensemble outputs cluster there, with 23°C and 25°C as secondary outcomes reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. No major synoptic shifts, such as frontal passages or typhoon influences, have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook, though final resolution hinges on the precise timing of the nocturnal minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 7?
24°C 61%
25°C 20%
23°C 15%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
6%
23°C
15%
24°C
61%
25°C
20%
26°C
3%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 61%
25°C 20%
23°C 15%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$534 Vol.
6%
23°C
$1,290 Vol.
15%
24°C
$1,350 Vol.
61%
25°C
$719 Vol.
20%
26°C
$275 Vol.
3%
27°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated September 6, point to overnight lows of 22–24°C in Shanghai on September 7 under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with early-autumn climatology, where typical minimums range 22–25°C as the monsoon retreat allows drier air advection. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C (59% implied probability) because ensemble outputs cluster there, with 23°C and 25°C as secondary outcomes reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. No major synoptic shifts, such as frontal passages or typhoon influences, have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook, though final resolution hinges on the precise timing of the nocturnal minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5,028End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated September 6, point to overnight lows of 22–24°C in Shanghai on September 7 under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with early-autumn climatology, where typical minimums range 22–25°C as the monsoon retreat allows drier air advection. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C (59% implied probability) because ensemble outputs cluster there, with 23°C and 25°C as secondary outcomes reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. No major synoptic shifts, such as frontal passages or typhoon influences, have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook, though final resolution hinges on the precise timing of the nocturnal minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,028End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated September 6, point to overnight lows of 22–24°C in Shanghai on September 7 under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with early-autumn climatology, where typical minimums range 22–25°C as the monsoon retreat allows drier air advection. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C (59% implied probability) because ensemble outputs cluster there, with 23°C and 25°C as secondary outcomes reflecting minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. No major synoptic shifts, such as frontal passages or typhoon influences, have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook, though final resolution hinges on the precise timing of the nocturnal minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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