**Forecast models indicate a relatively mild overnight minimum for Mexico City on September 6, driven by extensive cloud cover and widespread rain expected during the rainy season.** This setup limits radiative cooling at the city's high elevation (~2,240 m), keeping surface temperatures from dropping sharply despite typical September climatology with average lows near 12–13°C. Recent model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF show overnight lows clustered around 12–15°C, with some guidance near 14°C amid 80–95% rain probabilities and overcast skies. These conditions explain the market's leading 45% implied probability on 17°C or higher, while lower outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in exact steering patterns and precipitation timing. Traders appear to weigh the moderating effect of persistent moisture and clouds against historical September variability, with final model updates and observational data ahead of resolution likely to refine the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
7°C or below 84%
16°C 49%
14°C 30%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
84%
8°C
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
9%
11°C
17%
12°C
23%
13°C
25%
14°C
30%
15°C
27%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
-
7°C or below 84%
16°C 49%
14°C 30%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
84%
8°C
$0 Vol.
6%
9°C
$0 Vol.
6%
10°C
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$10 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C or higher
$6 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a relatively mild overnight minimum for Mexico City on September 6, driven by extensive cloud cover and widespread rain expected during the rainy season.**
This setup limits radiative cooling at the city's high elevation (~2,240 m), keeping surface temperatures from dropping sharply despite typical September climatology with average lows near 12–13°C. Recent model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF show overnight lows clustered around 12–15°C, with some guidance near 14°C amid 80–95% rain probabilities and overcast skies. These conditions explain the market's leading 45% implied probability on 17°C or higher, while lower outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in exact steering patterns and precipitation timing. Traders appear to weigh the moderating effect of persistent moisture and clouds against historical September variability, with final model updates and observational data ahead of resolution likely to refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a relatively mild overnight minimum for Mexico City on September 6, driven by extensive cloud cover and widespread rain expected during the rainy season.**
This setup limits radiative cooling at the city's high elevation (~2,240 m), keeping surface temperatures from dropping sharply despite typical September climatology with average lows near 12–13°C. Recent model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF show overnight lows clustered around 12–15°C, with some guidance near 14°C amid 80–95% rain probabilities and overcast skies. These conditions explain the market's leading 45% implied probability on 17°C or higher, while lower outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in exact steering patterns and precipitation timing. Traders appear to weigh the moderating effect of persistent moisture and clouds against historical September variability, with final model updates and observational data ahead of resolution likely to refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a relatively mild overnight minimum for Mexico City on September 6, driven by extensive cloud cover and widespread rain expected during the rainy season.** This setup limits radiative cooling at the city's high elevation (~2,240 m), keeping surface temperatures from dropping sharply despite typical September climatology with average lows near 12–13°C. Recent model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF show overnight lows clustered around 12–15°C, with some guidance near 14°C amid 80–95% rain probabilities and overcast skies. These conditions explain the market's leading 45% implied probability on 17°C or higher, while lower outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in exact steering patterns and precipitation timing. Traders appear to weigh the moderating effect of persistent moisture and clouds against historical September variability, with final model updates and observational data ahead of resolution likely to refine the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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