Trader sentiment positions 15°C as the frontrunner for Mexico City’s lowest temperature on September 5, reflecting National Meteorological Service data and ensemble model consensus showing stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation. Recent surface observations from nearby stations indicate overnight lows in the 14–16°C range, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 12–14°C absent strong cold fronts. Model runs highlight minimal variability from urban heat island effects or localized cloud cover, though slight downward revisions could occur with final CONAGUA verification. Key resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the central observatory, with traders monitoring any late adjustments from microclimate differences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
15°C 99%
7°C or below 20%
13°C 20%
14°C 20%
$1,282 Vol.
$1,282 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 99%
7°C or below 20%
13°C 20%
14°C 20%
$1,282 Vol.
$1,282 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
$20 Vol.
No
8°C
$12 Vol.
No
9°C
$57 Vol.
No
10°C
$32 Vol.
No
11°C
$37 Vol.
No
12°C
$39 Vol.
No
13°C
$37 Vol.
No
14°C
$39 Vol.
No
15°C
$209 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$694 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$106 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment positions 15°C as the frontrunner for Mexico City’s lowest temperature on September 5, reflecting National Meteorological Service data and ensemble model consensus showing stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation. Recent surface observations from nearby stations indicate overnight lows in the 14–16°C range, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 12–14°C absent strong cold fronts. Model runs highlight minimal variability from urban heat island effects or localized cloud cover, though slight downward revisions could occur with final CONAGUA verification. Key resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the central observatory, with traders monitoring any late adjustments from microclimate differences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,282End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment positions 15°C as the frontrunner for Mexico City’s lowest temperature on September 5, reflecting National Meteorological Service data and ensemble model consensus showing stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation. Recent surface observations from nearby stations indicate overnight lows in the 14–16°C range, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 12–14°C absent strong cold fronts. Model runs highlight minimal variability from urban heat island effects or localized cloud cover, though slight downward revisions could occur with final CONAGUA verification. Key resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the central observatory, with traders monitoring any late adjustments from microclimate differences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,282End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader sentiment positions 15°C as the frontrunner for Mexico City’s lowest temperature on September 5, reflecting National Meteorological Service data and ensemble model consensus showing stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation. Recent surface observations from nearby stations indicate overnight lows in the 14–16°C range, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 12–14°C absent strong cold fronts. Model runs highlight minimal variability from urban heat island effects or localized cloud cover, though slight downward revisions could occur with final CONAGUA verification. Key resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the central observatory, with traders monitoring any late adjustments from microclimate differences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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