Latest forecast models indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 6 will likely settle in the 23–25°C range under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and a warm air mass advecting from the south, supporting the market's heaviest positioning on the 21°C-or-below through 23°C outcomes. Radiative cooling overnight will be limited by dew points near 10–12°C and light northerly winds, while daytime maxima near 34–36°C align with climatological norms for early September yet reflect an ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 17°C historical average low. Model consensus shows minimal spread through the resolution window, with any downward revision in guidance from updated runs or observational data the key variable that could shift implied probabilities toward cooler bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
31°C or higher 47%
21°C or below 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
47%
22°C
27%
23°C
26%
24°C
11%
25°C
15%
26°C
16%
27°C
16%
28°C
7%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
47%
31°C or higher 47%
21°C or below 47%
22°C 27%
23°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$2 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$0 Vol.
16%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 6 will likely settle in the 23–25°C range under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and a warm air mass advecting from the south, supporting the market's heaviest positioning on the 21°C-or-below through 23°C outcomes. Radiative cooling overnight will be limited by dew points near 10–12°C and light northerly winds, while daytime maxima near 34–36°C align with climatological norms for early September yet reflect an ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 17°C historical average low. Model consensus shows minimal spread through the resolution window, with any downward revision in guidance from updated runs or observational data the key variable that could shift implied probabilities toward cooler bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 6 will likely settle in the 23–25°C range under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and a warm air mass advecting from the south, supporting the market's heaviest positioning on the 21°C-or-below through 23°C outcomes. Radiative cooling overnight will be limited by dew points near 10–12°C and light northerly winds, while daytime maxima near 34–36°C align with climatological norms for early September yet reflect an ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 17°C historical average low. Model consensus shows minimal spread through the resolution window, with any downward revision in guidance from updated runs or observational data the key variable that could shift implied probabilities toward cooler bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 6 will likely settle in the 23–25°C range under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and a warm air mass advecting from the south, supporting the market's heaviest positioning on the 21°C-or-below through 23°C outcomes. Radiative cooling overnight will be limited by dew points near 10–12°C and light northerly winds, while daytime maxima near 34–36°C align with climatological norms for early September yet reflect an ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 17°C historical average low. Model consensus shows minimal spread through the resolution window, with any downward revision in guidance from updated runs or observational data the key variable that could shift implied probabilities toward cooler bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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