Recent numerical weather model consensus, including GFS runs referenced by forecasters, points to overnight minima near 26–27°C in Karachi on September 6 amid persistent humid westerly flow and extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and multiple ensemble outputs show typical post-monsoon conditions with dew points near 24°C and light to moderate winds, supporting the market-implied 59% probability for a 27°C low. Lower outcomes such as 21°C or below carry elevated but secondary odds because any unexpected clear-sky development or stronger advection could allow brief additional cooling, though historical September climatology and current observations make such drops unlikely. Updated model guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 6?
27°C 64%
21°C or below 61%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
61%
22°C
49%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
23%
26°C
28%
27°C
59%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 64%
21°C or below 61%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
61%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$18 Vol.
23%
26°C
$1 Vol.
28%
27°C
$154 Vol.
59%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus, including GFS runs referenced by forecasters, points to overnight minima near 26–27°C in Karachi on September 6 amid persistent humid westerly flow and extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and multiple ensemble outputs show typical post-monsoon conditions with dew points near 24°C and light to moderate winds, supporting the market-implied 59% probability for a 27°C low. Lower outcomes such as 21°C or below carry elevated but secondary odds because any unexpected clear-sky development or stronger advection could allow brief additional cooling, though historical September climatology and current observations make such drops unlikely. Updated model guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$173End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus, including GFS runs referenced by forecasters, points to overnight minima near 26–27°C in Karachi on September 6 amid persistent humid westerly flow and extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and multiple ensemble outputs show typical post-monsoon conditions with dew points near 24°C and light to moderate winds, supporting the market-implied 59% probability for a 27°C low. Lower outcomes such as 21°C or below carry elevated but secondary odds because any unexpected clear-sky development or stronger advection could allow brief additional cooling, though historical September climatology and current observations make such drops unlikely. Updated model guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$173End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus, including GFS runs referenced by forecasters, points to overnight minima near 26–27°C in Karachi on September 6 amid persistent humid westerly flow and extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and multiple ensemble outputs show typical post-monsoon conditions with dew points near 24°C and light to moderate winds, supporting the market-implied 59% probability for a 27°C low. Lower outcomes such as 21°C or below carry elevated but secondary odds because any unexpected clear-sky development or stronger advection could allow brief additional cooling, though historical September climatology and current observations make such drops unlikely. Updated model guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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