Real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration confirm Wuhan reached a daily maximum of 31°C on September 5, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold. Synoptic conditions featuring weak high pressure, light winds, and limited cloud cover supported peak heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River valley. Ensemble guidance showed tight clustering around 30–32°C, with minimal spread attributable to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Resolution hinges on official station data; only a substantial revision in post-processed observations or an undetected instrument anomaly could shift the outcome, scenarios historical verification rates place well below 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on September 5?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on September 5?
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$36,921 Vol.
$36,921 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$36,921 Vol.
$36,921 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
$4,418 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,111 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,120 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,184 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,300 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$4,072 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,335 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,810 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,300 Vol.
No
36°C
$285 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$989 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration confirm Wuhan reached a daily maximum of 31°C on September 5, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold. Synoptic conditions featuring weak high pressure, light winds, and limited cloud cover supported peak heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River valley. Ensemble guidance showed tight clustering around 30–32°C, with minimal spread attributable to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Resolution hinges on official station data; only a substantial revision in post-processed observations or an undetected instrument anomaly could shift the outcome, scenarios historical verification rates place well below 5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$36,921End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration confirm Wuhan reached a daily maximum of 31°C on September 5, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold. Synoptic conditions featuring weak high pressure, light winds, and limited cloud cover supported peak heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River valley. Ensemble guidance showed tight clustering around 30–32°C, with minimal spread attributable to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Resolution hinges on official station data; only a substantial revision in post-processed observations or an undetected instrument anomaly could shift the outcome, scenarios historical verification rates place well below 5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,921End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration confirm Wuhan reached a daily maximum of 31°C on September 5, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold. Synoptic conditions featuring weak high pressure, light winds, and limited cloud cover supported peak heating consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River valley. Ensemble guidance showed tight clustering around 30–32°C, with minimal spread attributable to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Resolution hinges on official station data; only a substantial revision in post-processed observations or an undetected instrument anomaly could shift the outcome, scenarios historical verification rates place well below 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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