Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 29–30°C for Istanbul on September 6 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, consistent with early-September climatology and the absence of significant moisture or frontal systems. Stable high pressure and modest diurnal heating support these values, with limited model spread indicating low uncertainty for the daily maximum. Market-implied probabilities, led by 29°C at 36.5% and 30°C at 25.5%, closely track this consensus, while lower odds for 31°C or cooler outcomes reflect the modest upside potential from any unexpected warming or slight forecast revisions in final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
29°C 37%
30°C 25%
28°C 23%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
4%
28°C
23%
29°C
37%
30°C
25%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 37%
30°C 25%
28°C 23%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
$120 Vol.
2%
26°C
$188 Vol.
3%
27°C
$114 Vol.
4%
28°C
$617 Vol.
23%
29°C
$308 Vol.
37%
30°C
$598 Vol.
25%
31°C
$451 Vol.
6%
32°C
$83 Vol.
4%
33°C
$151 Vol.
1%
34°C
$341 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$441 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 29–30°C for Istanbul on September 6 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, consistent with early-September climatology and the absence of significant moisture or frontal systems. Stable high pressure and modest diurnal heating support these values, with limited model spread indicating low uncertainty for the daily maximum. Market-implied probabilities, led by 29°C at 36.5% and 30°C at 25.5%, closely track this consensus, while lower odds for 31°C or cooler outcomes reflect the modest upside potential from any unexpected warming or slight forecast revisions in final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$3,411End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 29–30°C for Istanbul on September 6 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, consistent with early-September climatology and the absence of significant moisture or frontal systems. Stable high pressure and modest diurnal heating support these values, with limited model spread indicating low uncertainty for the daily maximum. Market-implied probabilities, led by 29°C at 36.5% and 30°C at 25.5%, closely track this consensus, while lower odds for 31°C or cooler outcomes reflect the modest upside potential from any unexpected warming or slight forecast revisions in final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,411End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 29–30°C for Istanbul on September 6 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, consistent with early-September climatology and the absence of significant moisture or frontal systems. Stable high pressure and modest diurnal heating support these values, with limited model spread indicating low uncertainty for the daily maximum. Market-implied probabilities, led by 29°C at 36.5% and 30°C at 25.5%, closely track this consensus, while lower odds for 31°C or cooler outcomes reflect the modest upside potential from any unexpected warming or slight forecast revisions in final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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