**Official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service have converged on a daily maximum of 26°C for Istanbul on September 5, 2026.** Clear skies, moderate northeasterly winds around 10–20 km/h, and typical early-September synoptic conditions have limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near this level at representative stations such as Istanbul Atatürk Airport. Historical climatology for early September shows average highs of 23–27°C, providing additional context for the market-implied outcome. Trader consensus at 100% on 26°C reflects real-time skin-in-the-game aggregation of these data streams. The primary risk to this positioning remains a late-day model revision or station-specific microclimate reading differing by 1°C, though current observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$23,648 Vol.
$23,648 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$23,648 Vol.
$23,648 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
$862 Vol.
No
23°C
$521 Vol.
No
24°C
$332 Vol.
No
25°C
$940 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,972 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$6,351 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,923 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,100 Vol.
No
30°C
$817 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,419 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$411 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service have converged on a daily maximum of 26°C for Istanbul on September 5, 2026.** Clear skies, moderate northeasterly winds around 10–20 km/h, and typical early-September synoptic conditions have limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near this level at representative stations such as Istanbul Atatürk Airport. Historical climatology for early September shows average highs of 23–27°C, providing additional context for the market-implied outcome. Trader consensus at 100% on 26°C reflects real-time skin-in-the-game aggregation of these data streams. The primary risk to this positioning remains a late-day model revision or station-specific microclimate reading differing by 1°C, though current observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$23,648End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service have converged on a daily maximum of 26°C for Istanbul on September 5, 2026.** Clear skies, moderate northeasterly winds around 10–20 km/h, and typical early-September synoptic conditions have limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near this level at representative stations such as Istanbul Atatürk Airport. Historical climatology for early September shows average highs of 23–27°C, providing additional context for the market-implied outcome. Trader consensus at 100% on 26°C reflects real-time skin-in-the-game aggregation of these data streams. The primary risk to this positioning remains a late-day model revision or station-specific microclimate reading differing by 1°C, though current observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,648End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service have converged on a daily maximum of 26°C for Istanbul on September 5, 2026.** Clear skies, moderate northeasterly winds around 10–20 km/h, and typical early-September synoptic conditions have limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near this level at representative stations such as Istanbul Atatürk Airport. Historical climatology for early September shows average highs of 23–27°C, providing additional context for the market-implied outcome. Trader consensus at 100% on 26°C reflects real-time skin-in-the-game aggregation of these data streams. The primary risk to this positioning remains a late-day model revision or station-specific microclimate reading differing by 1°C, though current observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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