Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 77–79°F for Chicago on September 6, driven by easterly flow off Lake Michigan that limits daytime heating after early-month heat. This follows record-warm lows and 90+°F readings September 1–4, with a shift to cooler, more stable air under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The 78–79°F bin leads at 53.5% implied probability as it aligns with the consensus upper-70s projection near historical normals of 79.6°F, while lower bins capture downside risks from greater lake moderation or increased cloud cover. Traders will monitor updated NWS runs and any late adjustments to boundary-layer moisture ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
78-79°F 55%
76-77°F 32%
80-81°F 10%
74-75°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
55%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 55%
76-77°F 32%
80-81°F 10%
74-75°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
$378 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$287 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$466 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$441 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$1,883 Vol.
55%
80-81°F
$689 Vol.
10%
82-83°F
$280 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$643 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$289 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$225 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 77–79°F for Chicago on September 6, driven by easterly flow off Lake Michigan that limits daytime heating after early-month heat. This follows record-warm lows and 90+°F readings September 1–4, with a shift to cooler, more stable air under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The 78–79°F bin leads at 53.5% implied probability as it aligns with the consensus upper-70s projection near historical normals of 79.6°F, while lower bins capture downside risks from greater lake moderation or increased cloud cover. Traders will monitor updated NWS runs and any late adjustments to boundary-layer moisture ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,006End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 77–79°F for Chicago on September 6, driven by easterly flow off Lake Michigan that limits daytime heating after early-month heat. This follows record-warm lows and 90+°F readings September 1–4, with a shift to cooler, more stable air under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The 78–79°F bin leads at 53.5% implied probability as it aligns with the consensus upper-70s projection near historical normals of 79.6°F, while lower bins capture downside risks from greater lake moderation or increased cloud cover. Traders will monitor updated NWS runs and any late adjustments to boundary-layer moisture ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,006End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 77–79°F for Chicago on September 6, driven by easterly flow off Lake Michigan that limits daytime heating after early-month heat. This follows record-warm lows and 90+°F readings September 1–4, with a shift to cooler, more stable air under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The 78–79°F bin leads at 53.5% implied probability as it aligns with the consensus upper-70s projection near historical normals of 79.6°F, while lower bins capture downside risks from greater lake moderation or increased cloud cover. Traders will monitor updated NWS runs and any late adjustments to boundary-layer moisture ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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