**The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting continues to anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 28 policy meeting.** Persistent upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict—pushing headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain close to 2%—are offset by downside growth risks from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. With data evolving broadly in line with the July Monetary Policy Report, the Governing Council emphasized a wait-and-see approach pending fresh forecasts in the October MPR. This balanced risk assessment, combined with limited evidence of broadening price pressures, supports the market-implied 88.5% probability of unchanged policy, while the modest 8.4% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect the potential for firmer inflation signals to shift the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 88.5%
25 bps increase 8.6%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$51,253 Vol.
$51,253 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
9%
No Change
89%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 88.5%
25 bps increase 8.6%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$51,253 Vol.
$51,253 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
$3,709 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$11,274 Vol.
9%
No Change
$24,261 Vol.
89%
25 bps decrease
$8,144 Vol.
2%
50+ bps decrease
$3,864 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting continues to anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 28 policy meeting.** Persistent upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict—pushing headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain close to 2%—are offset by downside growth risks from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. With data evolving broadly in line with the July Monetary Policy Report, the Governing Council emphasized a wait-and-see approach pending fresh forecasts in the October MPR. This balanced risk assessment, combined with limited evidence of broadening price pressures, supports the market-implied 88.5% probability of unchanged policy, while the modest 8.4% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect the potential for firmer inflation signals to shift the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$51,253End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting continues to anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 28 policy meeting.** Persistent upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict—pushing headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain close to 2%—are offset by downside growth risks from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. With data evolving broadly in line with the July Monetary Policy Report, the Governing Council emphasized a wait-and-see approach pending fresh forecasts in the October MPR. This balanced risk assessment, combined with limited evidence of broadening price pressures, supports the market-implied 88.5% probability of unchanged policy, while the modest 8.4% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect the potential for firmer inflation signals to shift the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$51,253End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting continues to anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 28 policy meeting.** Persistent upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict—pushing headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain close to 2%—are offset by downside growth risks from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. With data evolving broadly in line with the July Monetary Policy Report, the Governing Council emphasized a wait-and-see approach pending fresh forecasts in the October MPR. This balanced risk assessment, combined with limited evidence of broadening price pressures, supports the market-implied 88.5% probability of unchanged policy, while the modest 8.4% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect the potential for firmer inflation signals to shift the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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