Strong U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under the current administrations underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against an invasion. The August 2026 inauguration of President Abelardo de la Espriella shifted policy toward close alignment with Washington, including authorization of joint counter-narcotics operations, a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and participation in the Shield of the Americas coalition targeting armed groups and trafficking networks. These developments build on longstanding bilateral ties focused on intelligence sharing, extraditions, and eradication programs rather than confrontation. Historical precedent of partnership, combined with the absence of territorial disputes or diplomatic ruptures in 2026, sustains high confidence in a non-invasion outcome. Unforeseen escalations, such as a sudden breakdown in cooperation or spillover from regional conflicts, remain the primary low-probability variables that could alter assessments before year-end.