**US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on intensified economic sanctions, an effective oil blockade, and secondary measures targeting foreign entities, rather than direct military intervention.** The Trump administration has issued executive actions, indicted former Cuban officials on longstanding charges, and demanded breaks in Havana’s security ties with China and Russia, while maintaining diplomatic channels and exploring negotiated leadership transitions. Pentagon planning and naval assets in the region have been noted, yet no invasion orders or large-scale deployments have occurred. Cuba’s deepening energy crisis and internal reforms have not triggered the threshold for military action. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to “No” because these coercive non-kinetic tools remain the dominant approach through the end of the year, with invasion viewed as a high-risk escalation unlikely to materialize absent a major unforeseen trigger.