US military operations in Venezuela since early 2026 have centered on a targeted January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro, followed by naval and air assets in the Caribbean, sanctions enforcement, and a US stake in Venezuelan oil production under the Rodríguez interim government. Trader sentiment on invasion markets remains low, reflecting the absence of congressional authorization for sustained ground operations, limited US public support for occupation, and Washington's preference for economic leverage and diplomatic negotiations over territorial control. Recent developments include judicial reform talks, oil investment deals, and continued regional force deployments, yet no large-scale offensive to seize territory has materialized. Key variables ahead include compliance with US demands on oil governance, political prisoner releases, and any escalation tied to cartel activity or opposition dynamics through December 2026.