The expiration of the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding in mid-August has sustained trader focus on whether Washington will shift from targeted strikes and sanctions to a formal congressional declaration of war. US forces continue enforcing a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz while imposing expanded sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iranian oil, shipping, and financial networks. Iranian officials have reiterated conditions for any Hormuz reopening and signaled openness to mediated talks via Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar, though direct negotiations remain stalled. President Trump has described the situation as a limited military conflict rather than full-scale war and has discussed potential de-escalation timelines ahead of the November midterms. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any further incidents in the strait represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,810,979 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
3%
$7,810,979 Vol.
December 31
$838,345 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The expiration of the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding in mid-August has sustained trader focus on whether Washington will shift from targeted strikes and sanctions to a formal congressional declaration of war. US forces continue enforcing a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz while imposing expanded sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iranian oil, shipping, and financial networks. Iranian officials have reiterated conditions for any Hormuz reopening and signaled openness to mediated talks via Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar, though direct negotiations remain stalled. President Trump has described the situation as a limited military conflict rather than full-scale war and has discussed potential de-escalation timelines ahead of the November midterms. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any further incidents in the strait represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,810,979End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The expiration of the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding in mid-August has sustained trader focus on whether Washington will shift from targeted strikes and sanctions to a formal congressional declaration of war. US forces continue enforcing a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz while imposing expanded sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iranian oil, shipping, and financial networks. Iranian officials have reiterated conditions for any Hormuz reopening and signaled openness to mediated talks via Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar, though direct negotiations remain stalled. President Trump has described the situation as a limited military conflict rather than full-scale war and has discussed potential de-escalation timelines ahead of the November midterms. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any further incidents in the strait represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,810,979End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The expiration of the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding in mid-August has sustained trader focus on whether Washington will shift from targeted strikes and sanctions to a formal congressional declaration of war. US forces continue enforcing a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz while imposing expanded sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iranian oil, shipping, and financial networks. Iranian officials have reiterated conditions for any Hormuz reopening and signaled openness to mediated talks via Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar, though direct negotiations remain stalled. President Trump has described the situation as a limited military conflict rather than full-scale war and has discussed potential de-escalation timelines ahead of the November midterms. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any further incidents in the strait represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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