Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping hundreds of kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium under rubble in sealed tunnels with no verified access or movement since. The IAEA reports ongoing denial of inspections at sensitive facilities, halting verification of stockpiles and confirming no active enrichment as of its latest assessments. This leaves Iran's program in a dormant state amid stalled ceasefire talks and a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding focused on down-blending and limits. With only months remaining until 2027, the combination of physical destruction, lack of operational centrifuges, and international scrutiny underpins trader consensus against a completed weapon. Late shifts could still arise from undetected recovery of buried material, accelerated covert work at deeper sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or abrupt policy changes if negotiations collapse.