Iran's nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inaccessible with stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried or unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing denial of inspector access since February 2026, combined with halted enrichment activities and no observable preparations for explosive testing, has reinforced trader views that a detectable nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and the risk of further military responses continue to shape restraint. A rapid escalation in regional conflicts or a policy shift by Iranian leadership could still introduce uncertainty, though current evidence points to substantial technical and political barriers in the short term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inaccessible with stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried or unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing denial of inspector access since February 2026, combined with halted enrichment activities and no observable preparations for explosive testing, has reinforced trader views that a detectable nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and the risk of further military responses continue to shape restraint. A rapid escalation in regional conflicts or a policy shift by Iranian leadership could still introduce uncertainty, though current evidence points to substantial technical and political barriers in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,652End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inaccessible with stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried or unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing denial of inspector access since February 2026, combined with halted enrichment activities and no observable preparations for explosive testing, has reinforced trader views that a detectable nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and the risk of further military responses continue to shape restraint. A rapid escalation in regional conflicts or a policy shift by Iranian leadership could still introduce uncertainty, though current evidence points to substantial technical and political barriers in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,652End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inaccessible with stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried or unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing denial of inspector access since February 2026, combined with halted enrichment activities and no observable preparations for explosive testing, has reinforced trader views that a detectable nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and the risk of further military responses continue to shape restraint. A rapid escalation in regional conflicts or a policy shift by Iranian leadership could still introduce uncertainty, though current evidence points to substantial technical and political barriers in the short term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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