Recent stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have reinforced trader expectations that Iran will not commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. The interim accord called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of stockpiles and 60 days of talks on a final deal, yet disputes over inspection access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan persist, with Tehran conditioning cooperation on sanctions relief. A September 2026 IAEA assessment confirmed no inspector access to enrichment facilities since 2025 strikes and inability to verify current stockpile status or activity. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while talks have not produced limits or a zero-enrichment framework. These verification and diplomatic barriers sustain the market's assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$1,681,497 Vol.
$1,681,497 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
$1,681,497 Vol.
$1,681,497 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have reinforced trader expectations that Iran will not commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. The interim accord called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of stockpiles and 60 days of talks on a final deal, yet disputes over inspection access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan persist, with Tehran conditioning cooperation on sanctions relief. A September 2026 IAEA assessment confirmed no inspector access to enrichment facilities since 2025 strikes and inability to verify current stockpile status or activity. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while talks have not produced limits or a zero-enrichment framework. These verification and diplomatic barriers sustain the market's assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,681,497End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have reinforced trader expectations that Iran will not commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. The interim accord called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of stockpiles and 60 days of talks on a final deal, yet disputes over inspection access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan persist, with Tehran conditioning cooperation on sanctions relief. A September 2026 IAEA assessment confirmed no inspector access to enrichment facilities since 2025 strikes and inability to verify current stockpile status or activity. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while talks have not produced limits or a zero-enrichment framework. These verification and diplomatic barriers sustain the market's assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,681,497End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have reinforced trader expectations that Iran will not commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. The interim accord called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of stockpiles and 60 days of talks on a final deal, yet disputes over inspection access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan persist, with Tehran conditioning cooperation on sanctions relief. A September 2026 IAEA assessment confirmed no inspector access to enrichment facilities since 2025 strikes and inability to verify current stockpile status or activity. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while talks have not produced limits or a zero-enrichment framework. These verification and diplomatic barriers sustain the market's assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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