**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled follow-on negotiations after the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have kept approval odds low.** The MOU launched a 60-day window (ending mid-August) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund, and Strait of Hormuz access, but no final agreement emerged amid renewed tensions and limited U.S. strikes in late August. Lawmakers in both parties have demanded full INARA review of any nuclear-related pact, citing concerns over sanctions waivers, verification gaps, and potential benefits to Iranian proxies; the Republican-led Congress passed symbolic war-powers measures curbing further military action without explicit authorization. With the administration facing internal divisions and lawmakers prioritizing enforceable conditions, traders see little prospect of a completed, congressionally approved deal before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
7% chance
$13,105 Vol.
$13,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$13,105 Vol.
$13,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled follow-on negotiations after the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have kept approval odds low.** The MOU launched a 60-day window (ending mid-August) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund, and Strait of Hormuz access, but no final agreement emerged amid renewed tensions and limited U.S. strikes in late August. Lawmakers in both parties have demanded full INARA review of any nuclear-related pact, citing concerns over sanctions waivers, verification gaps, and potential benefits to Iranian proxies; the Republican-led Congress passed symbolic war-powers measures curbing further military action without explicit authorization. With the administration facing internal divisions and lawmakers prioritizing enforceable conditions, traders see little prospect of a completed, congressionally approved deal before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$13,105End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled follow-on negotiations after the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have kept approval odds low.** The MOU launched a 60-day window (ending mid-August) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund, and Strait of Hormuz access, but no final agreement emerged amid renewed tensions and limited U.S. strikes in late August. Lawmakers in both parties have demanded full INARA review of any nuclear-related pact, citing concerns over sanctions waivers, verification gaps, and potential benefits to Iranian proxies; the Republican-led Congress passed symbolic war-powers measures curbing further military action without explicit authorization. With the administration facing internal divisions and lawmakers prioritizing enforceable conditions, traders see little prospect of a completed, congressionally approved deal before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,105End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled follow-on negotiations after the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have kept approval odds low.** The MOU launched a 60-day window (ending mid-August) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund, and Strait of Hormuz access, but no final agreement emerged amid renewed tensions and limited U.S. strikes in late August. Lawmakers in both parties have demanded full INARA review of any nuclear-related pact, citing concerns over sanctions waivers, verification gaps, and potential benefits to Iranian proxies; the Republican-led Congress passed symbolic war-powers measures curbing further military action without explicit authorization. With the administration facing internal divisions and lawmakers prioritizing enforceable conditions, traders see little prospect of a completed, congressionally approved deal before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions