**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31 because the June 2026 Islamabad MOU framework collapsed without producing an agreement.** The MOU, signed after U.S.-Iran hostilities, set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, and other issues, with any final accord to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. That period ended in mid-August without consensus, the interim ceasefire frayed, and direct exchanges resumed, including U.S. strikes and Iranian responses. Key obstacles include unresolved disputes over uranium stockpile disposition and enrichment limits, IAEA verification access, sanctions termination scope, and regional issues such as Lebanon. As of early September 2026, the U.S., UK, France, and Germany are advancing an IAEA Board resolution to report Iran to the UNSC over compliance concerns—the first such step in two decades—signaling heightened confrontation rather than diplomatic closure. These developments have kept the negotiating track dormant and made timely UNSC endorsement of a comprehensive deal appear highly improbable to market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
14% chance
$221,003 Vol.
$221,003 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
$221,003 Vol.
$221,003 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31 because the June 2026 Islamabad MOU framework collapsed without producing an agreement.** The MOU, signed after U.S.-Iran hostilities, set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, and other issues, with any final accord to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. That period ended in mid-August without consensus, the interim ceasefire frayed, and direct exchanges resumed, including U.S. strikes and Iranian responses.
Key obstacles include unresolved disputes over uranium stockpile disposition and enrichment limits, IAEA verification access, sanctions termination scope, and regional issues such as Lebanon. As of early September 2026, the U.S., UK, France, and Germany are advancing an IAEA Board resolution to report Iran to the UNSC over compliance concerns—the first such step in two decades—signaling heightened confrontation rather than diplomatic closure. These developments have kept the negotiating track dormant and made timely UNSC endorsement of a comprehensive deal appear highly improbable to market participants.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Volume
$221,003End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31 because the June 2026 Islamabad MOU framework collapsed without producing an agreement.** The MOU, signed after U.S.-Iran hostilities, set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, and other issues, with any final accord to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. That period ended in mid-August without consensus, the interim ceasefire frayed, and direct exchanges resumed, including U.S. strikes and Iranian responses.
Key obstacles include unresolved disputes over uranium stockpile disposition and enrichment limits, IAEA verification access, sanctions termination scope, and regional issues such as Lebanon. As of early September 2026, the U.S., UK, France, and Germany are advancing an IAEA Board resolution to report Iran to the UNSC over compliance concerns—the first such step in two decades—signaling heightened confrontation rather than diplomatic closure. These developments have kept the negotiating track dormant and made timely UNSC endorsement of a comprehensive deal appear highly improbable to market participants.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$221,003End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31 because the June 2026 Islamabad MOU framework collapsed without producing an agreement.** The MOU, signed after U.S.-Iran hostilities, set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, and other issues, with any final accord to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. That period ended in mid-August without consensus, the interim ceasefire frayed, and direct exchanges resumed, including U.S. strikes and Iranian responses. Key obstacles include unresolved disputes over uranium stockpile disposition and enrichment limits, IAEA verification access, sanctions termination scope, and regional issues such as Lebanon. As of early September 2026, the U.S., UK, France, and Germany are advancing an IAEA Board resolution to report Iran to the UNSC over compliance concerns—the first such step in two decades—signaling heightened confrontation rather than diplomatic closure. These developments have kept the negotiating track dormant and made timely UNSC endorsement of a comprehensive deal appear highly improbable to market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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