Ongoing geopolitical tensions and active military exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of pre-crisis norms of roughly 85 daily transits, driving the market-implied probability toward the 20-39 ship range for the week of August 31. Daily counts from IMF PortWatch and Kpler data remained in the low single digits through late August, with just six total transits recorded on August 30 amid mine threats, tanker attacks, Iranian vessel blacklists, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that deter most operators. Recent U.S. strikes on Iranian positions near the strait and retaliatory missile activity have sustained route uncertainty and prompted many vessels to go AIS-dark or reroute entirely, while limited corridor agreements with Oman have produced only marginal, short-lived gains. These factors align with the 70% implied odds on 20-39 transits, though persistently suppressed volumes leave room for a sub-20 outcome if enforcement tightens further before resolution.