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Finance·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of September?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of September?
Finance·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of September?

Sep 30

Sep 30

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$243 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $4.50

$0 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.40

$0 Vol.

54%

↑ $4.30

$0 Vol.

57%

↑ $4.20

$243 Vol.

73%

↓ $4.00

$0 Vol.

53%

↓ $3.90

$0 Vol.

14%

↓ $3.70

$0 Vol.

15%

↓ $3.50

$0 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**Elevated U.S. gasoline prices near $4.15 per gallon as of early September 2026 reflect sustained supply constraints from the U.S.-Iran conflict and related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20-25% of global oil flows.** Crude oil has traded above $90 per barrel amid shipping delays and refinery attacks elsewhere, directly lifting pump prices roughly 2.4-2.5 cents per gallon for every $1 move in crude. Domestic factors include inventories 5-6% below seasonal norms, refinery utilization at 98% (highest since 2018), and record U.S. production failing to offset global tightness. Post-Labor Day demand typically eases, but any renewed geopolitical flare-up, inventory draws, or weather-driven power demand could support prices through month-end, while de-escalation or normalized Hormuz traffic would likely pressure them lower. Trader consensus on Polymarket aggregates these probabilities with real capital at risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$243
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**Elevated U.S. gasoline prices near $4.15 per gallon as of early September 2026 reflect sustained supply constraints from the U.S.-Iran conflict and related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20-25% of global oil flows.** Crude oil has traded above $90 per barrel amid shipping delays and refinery attacks elsewhere, directly lifting pump prices roughly 2.4-2.5 cents per gallon for every $1 move in crude. Domestic factors include inventories 5-6% below seasonal norms, refinery utilization at 98% (highest since 2018), and record U.S. production failing to offset global tightness. Post-Labor Day demand typically eases, but any renewed geopolitical flare-up, inventory draws, or weather-driven power demand could support prices through month-end, while de-escalation or normalized Hormuz traffic would likely pressure them lower. Trader consensus on Polymarket aggregates these probabilities with real capital at risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$243
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.20" at 73%, followed by "↑ $4.30" at 57%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of September?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is "↑ $4.20" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.30" at 57%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.