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icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

Nov 1

Nov 1

$30,323 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$30,323 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$408 Vol.

11%

October 31

$1,598 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Iran, particularly over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy activities, have prompted several countries to take formal expulsion measures. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early April 2026 after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, enabling sanctions and asset seizures. Lebanon issued a similar order against Iran's ambassador in late March amid renewed Hezbollah-Israel fighting, though the envoy remained in place. France expelled two Iranian diplomats in August following allegations of mistreatment of French embassy staff in Tehran. These actions align with earlier U.S. and other expulsions tied to security concerns and Vienna Convention disputes. Ongoing regional frictions, including sanctions enforcement and interference claims, continue to shape the likelihood of additional formal diplomatic steps by governments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,323
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Iran, particularly over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxy activities, have prompted several countries to take formal expulsion measures. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in early April 2026 after designating the IRGC a terrorist organization, enabling sanctions and asset seizures. Lebanon issued a similar order against Iran's ambassador in late March amid renewed Hezbollah-Israel fighting, though the envoy remained in place. France expelled two Iranian diplomats in August following allegations of mistreatment of French embassy staff in Tehran. These actions align with earlier U.S. and other expulsions tied to security concerns and Vienna Convention disputes. Ongoing regional frictions, including sanctions enforcement and interference claims, continue to shape the likelihood of additional formal diplomatic steps by governments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,323
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31" at 26%, followed by "September 30" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" has generated $30.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is "October 31" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.