Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including the U.S. revocation of Brazil’s ambassador visa in August 2026 without any expulsion and public petitions in Canada and Namibia calling for U.S. envoys to be declared persona non grata, no country has taken that formal step in 2026. Reciprocal actions, stalled ambassador confirmations, and ambassador recalls by Washington have escalated tensions in places like Brazil ahead of its October elections, yet host governments have avoided full expulsions. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for no expulsion by December 31, as such measures remain rare and typically require severe breakdowns in relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including the U.S. revocation of Brazil’s ambassador visa in August 2026 without any expulsion and public petitions in Canada and Namibia calling for U.S. envoys to be declared persona non grata, no country has taken that formal step in 2026. Reciprocal actions, stalled ambassador confirmations, and ambassador recalls by Washington have escalated tensions in places like Brazil ahead of its October elections, yet host governments have avoided full expulsions. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for no expulsion by December 31, as such measures remain rare and typically require severe breakdowns in relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including the U.S. revocation of Brazil’s ambassador visa in August 2026 without any expulsion and public petitions in Canada and Namibia calling for U.S. envoys to be declared persona non grata, no country has taken that formal step in 2026. Reciprocal actions, stalled ambassador confirmations, and ambassador recalls by Washington have escalated tensions in places like Brazil ahead of its October elections, yet host governments have avoided full expulsions. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for no expulsion by December 31, as such measures remain rare and typically require severe breakdowns in relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including the U.S. revocation of Brazil’s ambassador visa in August 2026 without any expulsion and public petitions in Canada and Namibia calling for U.S. envoys to be declared persona non grata, no country has taken that formal step in 2026. Reciprocal actions, stalled ambassador confirmations, and ambassador recalls by Washington have escalated tensions in places like Brazil ahead of its October elections, yet host governments have avoided full expulsions. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for no expulsion by December 31, as such measures remain rare and typically require severe breakdowns in relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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