Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, and the Conservatives at 15 percent. Seat models from 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality of seats—typically in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters in key ridings, but fragmented federalist support and a competitive race against the CAQ in dozens of districts limit its path to an outright majority. Early campaign tightening, with the CAQ gaining ground, has reinforced trader expectations that no party will secure a majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, and the Conservatives at 15 percent. Seat models from 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality of seats—typically in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters in key ridings, but fragmented federalist support and a competitive race against the CAQ in dozens of districts limit its path to an outright majority. Early campaign tightening, with the CAQ gaining ground, has reinforced trader expectations that no party will secure a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,121End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, and the Conservatives at 15 percent. Seat models from 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality of seats—typically in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters in key ridings, but fragmented federalist support and a competitive race against the CAQ in dozens of districts limit its path to an outright majority. Early campaign tightening, with the CAQ gaining ground, has reinforced trader expectations that no party will secure a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$1,121End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, and the Conservatives at 15 percent. Seat models from 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality of seats—typically in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters in key ridings, but fragmented federalist support and a competitive race against the CAQ in dozens of districts limit its path to an outright majority. Early campaign tightening, with the CAQ gaining ground, has reinforced trader expectations that no party will secure a majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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