Traders assign a 95.6% implied probability that the Parti Vert du Québec will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 general election, reflecting its persistently low support in recent polling aggregates and seat projections. Major parties such as the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Québec solidaire dominate vote intentions and riding-level forecasts, with QS capturing most left-leaning and environmental preferences in competitive districts. PVQ has shown no measurable surge in popular vote or targeted riding strength since the writs were issued, and historical patterns indicate minimal vote efficiency for smaller parties outside established blocs. Late-campaign shifts, regional candidate effects, or unusually high turnout among niche voters could theoretically alter narrow outcomes, though current data offer little indication of such movement before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 95.6% implied probability that the Parti Vert du Québec will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 general election, reflecting its persistently low support in recent polling aggregates and seat projections. Major parties such as the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Québec solidaire dominate vote intentions and riding-level forecasts, with QS capturing most left-leaning and environmental preferences in competitive districts. PVQ has shown no measurable surge in popular vote or targeted riding strength since the writs were issued, and historical patterns indicate minimal vote efficiency for smaller parties outside established blocs. Late-campaign shifts, regional candidate effects, or unusually high turnout among niche voters could theoretically alter narrow outcomes, though current data offer little indication of such movement before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$247End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Traders assign a 95.6% implied probability that the Parti Vert du Québec will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 general election, reflecting its persistently low support in recent polling aggregates and seat projections. Major parties such as the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Québec solidaire dominate vote intentions and riding-level forecasts, with QS capturing most left-leaning and environmental preferences in competitive districts. PVQ has shown no measurable surge in popular vote or targeted riding strength since the writs were issued, and historical patterns indicate minimal vote efficiency for smaller parties outside established blocs. Late-campaign shifts, regional candidate effects, or unusually high turnout among niche voters could theoretically alter narrow outcomes, though current data offer little indication of such movement before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$247End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.6% implied probability that the Parti Vert du Québec will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 general election, reflecting its persistently low support in recent polling aggregates and seat projections. Major parties such as the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Québec solidaire dominate vote intentions and riding-level forecasts, with QS capturing most left-leaning and environmental preferences in competitive districts. PVQ has shown no measurable surge in popular vote or targeted riding strength since the writs were issued, and historical patterns indicate minimal vote efficiency for smaller parties outside established blocs. Late-campaign shifts, regional candidate effects, or unusually high turnout among niche voters could theoretically alter narrow outcomes, though current data offer little indication of such movement before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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