Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads trader assessments for Quebec’s next premier at 63.5% because the Parti Québécois has maintained a narrow but consistent edge in recent polling among francophone voters ahead of the October 5 election. The PQ’s support, concentrated in key ridings outside Montreal, aligns with first-past-the-post dynamics that favor it in seat projections despite popular-vote margins often below five points. Christine Fréchette, the CAQ leader and current premier since April 2026, has narrowed the gap in late-summer surveys as the campaign focuses on U.S. tariffs and economic management, yet her party remains behind after years of declining support under the prior administration. Charles Milliard of the Quebec Liberals trails at 3.9% amid fragmented federalist votes, while minor-party leaders register below 1%. Upcoming debates and final polls could still shift the implied probabilities before election day.