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Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$389,102 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$389,102 Vol.

Polymarket

Mexico

$2,819 Vol.

16%

India

$70,448 Vol.

15%

Indonesia

$19,597 Vol.

15%

South Africa

$553 Vol.

14%

Israel

$569 Vol.

13%

Vietnam

$6,741 Vol.

13%

Canada

$21,698 Vol.

12%

United Kingdom

$576 Vol.

12%

Taiwan

$33,924 Vol.

12%

South Korea

$59,668 Vol.

12%

Argentina

$22,653 Vol.

11%

Australia

$6,287 Vol.

10%

Pakistan

$105,485 Vol.

9%

Russia

$2,262 Vol.

8%

Brazil

$4,713 Vol.

7%

European Union

$13,349 Vol.

7%

Japan

$17,763 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's "America First" trade agenda centers on bilateral Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs), which tie reduced U.S. reciprocal tariffs to partner concessions on market access, tariff elimination on U.S. exports, non-tariff barriers, forced labor enforcement, and supply chain alignment away from China. Multiple ARTs have been signed or advanced in 2026, including with Jordan, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Argentina, and others, alongside frameworks or early-harvest pacts with Thailand, Uzbekistan, the EU, North Macedonia, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. Ongoing USMCA joint review negotiations with Mexico and Canada target interim arrangements by year-end, while separate talks address critical minerals, agriculture, and energy purchases. Scheduled catalysts include the September-October 2026 G20 Trade Ministerial and continued Section 301 enforcement, shaping trader assessments of which additional partners can finalize deals before the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$389,102
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's "America First" trade agenda centers on bilateral Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs), which tie reduced U.S. reciprocal tariffs to partner concessions on market access, tariff elimination on U.S. exports, non-tariff barriers, forced labor enforcement, and supply chain alignment away from China. Multiple ARTs have been signed or advanced in 2026, including with Jordan, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Argentina, and others, alongside frameworks or early-harvest pacts with Thailand, Uzbekistan, the EU, North Macedonia, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. Ongoing USMCA joint review negotiations with Mexico and Canada target interim arrangements by year-end, while separate talks address critical minerals, agriculture, and energy purchases. Scheduled catalysts include the September-October 2026 G20 Trade Ministerial and continued Section 301 enforcement, shaping trader assessments of which additional partners can finalize deals before the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$389,102
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mexico" at 16%, followed by "India" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $389.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "Mexico" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "India" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.